Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

A Real Spin in an Airplane - A Tall Tale of a Story

THE GULFSTREAM G550

LEGENDARY QUALITY, FLEXIBLE PERFORMANCE

The G550 has the efficiency to fly 6,750 nautical miles/12,501 kilometers nonstop, but also is capable of operating out of short-field, high-altitude airports. Payload is a plus, too. The G550 can transport up to 18 passengers and still has the range to fly nonstop more than 12 hours.

The Whole Story

Famous Quotes:  …You already know the end of the stories!

• ·         Obama said, "You can keep your plan & your Dr." ... 
• ·         Bill said, "I did not have sex with that woman"…
• ·         Hillary said, "It's a video that started the attack that killed the Ambassador" …
• ·         Loretta said, “We talked for half an hour about grandkids and golf”…

A Field-base operator (FBO) is a commercial business granted the right by an airport to operate on the airport and provide aeronautical services such as fueling and parking. Unidentified personnel who worked at the FBO in Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport called a TV anchor at the local ABC Station who verified the meeting. A second independent source at the airport said Loretta and Bill were alone together on board AG Loretta Lynch’s jet for half an hour.

Question: Why would AG Loretta Lynch go to Phoenix first which is 600 miles South of Aspen and then go North to Aspen from Phoenix? Anyone check on the actual flight plans of both planes?

Well, let’s see... AG Loretta Lynch was headed to Aspen, Co from Washington DC for a speaking engagement, a distance of around 1500 miles in almost a direct line from East to West. The Government plane she was flying in was more than likely a G550 with a range of 6750 miles.

She did not need to stop in Phoenix for fuel because if she would have flown direct, fuel would not be necessary. In fact, if you do the math, the G550 has the range to make that direct round trip route without refueling.

Question: Why was Bill Clinton’s plane waiting for AG Loretta Lynch’s plane to land in Phoenix when she was going to Aspen?

Also remember now, AG Loretta Lynch does not have any grandkids and doesn’t play golf. ...Hmmn!

The meeting was either planned to put the Clinton Fix on or to decide on which golf course Bill played on in Phoenix.

 

Bail Out U.S. Debt with Your Retirement Funds?

With only two weeks left before the November 4, 2014 midterm elections, the Democrats have evoked a populist riff to bolster the votes to retain majority senate control. Any companies that seek legal ways to invest their previously taxed foreign earnings in the U.S. without penalities, the CEO is branded as a "corporate deserter" by Obama. So let's go after the big bad boogyman, the greedy bloodsucking huge corporate behemoths stealing the milk out of babies' bottles who are left to starve! 

Every year, there are news stories outlining how much multinational corporations are paying in taxes. Many of the more sensational stories lead people to believe that U.S. companies pay little or nothing in taxes on their foreign earnings.

Source: KPMG LLP, U.S. audit, tax and advisory services firm,

Some politicians suggest implementing a “minimum tax” on corporate foreign earnings to prevent tax avoidance. Unfortunately, legislation that would impose these types of taxes on multinational corporations is based on a misunderstanding of how U.S. international tax rules work.

In any discussion of U.S. corporate tax policy and tax reform, it is important to understand how and to what extent multinational firms’ foreign earnings are taxed. Let's look at official U.S. IRS Tax Tables Key Findings: 

• The United States’ worldwide system of corporate taxation requires multinational corporations to pay taxes twice, first to the foreign country in which they do business and then to the IRS after they repatriate their profits.

• Petroleum and coal products manufacturing corporations paid $42.7 billion in foreign taxes on $118.2 billion in taxable income. Remarkably, this industry accounted for a quarter of all foreign earned income and 33 percent of all foreign taxes paid by U.S. multinationals. The average effective tax rate paid by petroleum and coal products manufacturers was 36.1 percent.

• While there are undoubtedly U.S. multinationals that paid low effective rates on their foreign earned income in some countries, a majority of foreign taxable income reported by U.S. corporations was taxed at effective rates between 20 and 30 percent overseas.

Source: IRS Form 1118 (2010).

Note: Includes only repatriated income and income subject to current taxation. Does not include income currently held abroad.

Conclusions

While it is undoubtedly true that U.S. multinational firms use numerous tax planning techniques to minimize the taxes, they pay on their foreign earnings.

IRS data shows that the subsidiaries of U.S. multinationals reported paying more than $128 billion in corporate income taxes to foreign tax authorities on roughly $470 billion in foreign taxable income in 2010.

"Averaged across some ninety countries, U.S. companies paid an effective tax rate of 27.2 percent on that income. While many corporations paid less than that on foreign earned income, a majority of foreign income in 2010 faced effective tax rates of 20 percent or higher in foreign countries. Furthermore, most corporate income was earned, and most corporate income taxes paid overseas were paid, by manufacturers, especially those engaged in petroleum and coal products manufacturing."

NOTE: Reporters and lawmakers who criticize U.S. companies for “avoiding” taxes on their foreign earnings need to be more careful with their language and acknowledge that our U.S. worldwide tax system requires U.S. firms to pay taxes twice on their foreign profits:  

First time to the host country

Second time to the U.S. IRS

A major point is that before U.S. companies can retain earnings to reinvest their profits back home that they pay the applicable foreign country's taxes. Then, the residual income can be repatriated to the shareholders' dividends for income distribution; company operating expenses for payroll. R&D or inventory; and cash reserves.

Have you ever asked yourself what 401K programs, Union profit sharing programs and company retirement programs are about? Hint: It's to grow tax-free investment monies to pay out for your future program benefits; it's not to reduce overall principle earnings power by paying extra income taxes to support government waste or for more debt bailouts. When you withdraw future benefits as income, the IRS then taxes you.

Any discussion about reforming the U.S. corporate tax code must keep these facts in mind. 

Obama Vampire Diaries

Forrest Gump famously remarked, "Mama always said, "Stupid is as stupid does." You are what you do. Unfortunately, many do without even thinking--read on... George Carlin, Comedian & Social Critic

During the course of any day many different people normally offer the conciliatory "Hello, how are you?" greeting and then turn away without waiting for any reply, no intended insults taken either--everyone is polite, but busy. Occasionally conversations take up after the perfunctory salutations, then it can be an opportunity to share ideas about the weather or more substantive topics. 

Lately, however, I have realized that I have been in amongst an ever-growing population of the living dead; Vampires, a pejorative description for liberals who may appear to be regular people. Contrary to many popular misconceptions about the mythical Vampires, they can stand the light of day but not direct sunlight because they will sparkle showing what they really are--it sounds just like Vampire Liberals who cannot withstand any media spotlight highlighting their true colors, otherwise people should fear them as well.

The unfortunate tragedy here is that many of these Vampire Liberals are unaware they are transformed into the walking dead. They have been unknowingly programmed due to repeated exposure from a barrage of left-wing mainstream media assaults at home while inundated with propaganda under the auspices of the federally funded liberal school curriculums. The left-wing agenda has literally permeated the whole societal fiber of the citizenry today in order to control the politics. 

So how does this trend reverse itself? Sadly the quick answer is a very slow one as it has taken from 1960 to 2014 for fifty-four years plus to indoctrinate two generations into joining federal entitlement programs. A generation is defined as thirty years it takes for a person to be born and to have children of his own. Lyndon Johnson started "The Great Society" program to mimic the FDR "New Deal" program which then encompassed "The Civil Rights Act" and "The Medicare Act". Lyndon Johnson, who was ambivalent to the Civil Rights Bill for the blacks and changed his tune when he realized he could put a lock on a whole voting block real cheap, for the next fifty years, it was then a political deal that he really relished. 

Factoid: The 1964 election brought in many new liberals to Congress, making the House of Representatives in 1965 the most liberal House since 1938 due to public sympathy after the JFK assassination and completing JFK's program to lower the upper tax bracket by 20% and middle income ones too which increased the GDP 10%. Even though the House and Senate both had 2/3 Democrat members, during the heated debates on the Civil Rights Act, the Southern Dixiecrat Democrat segregationists voted against it to block it. The party of Abraham Lincoln, the Republican Party, voted in the legislation to enable it to pass. The Social Security Act of 1965 authorized Medicare. The Elementary and Secondary Education Act ended a long-standing political taboo by providing significant federal aid to public education, but it opened up ever since a pandora's box of intrusive Washington political agendas in all school levels through college.

The Johnson Administration submitted eighty-seven bills to Congress, and Johnson signed eighty-four, or 96%, arguably the most successful legislative agenda in U.S. Congressional history. 

Economist Thomas Sowell argues that President Lyndon Johnson's "The Great Society" programs only contributed to the destruction of African American families, saying "the black family, which had survived centuries of slavery and discrimination, then began rapidly disintegrating in the liberal welfare state that subsidized unwed pregnancy and changed welfare from an emergency rescue to a way of life."

An Important Election is coming up for a vote in 2014 to elect U.S. Congressmen who will listen to the people, not Washington -- Vote Wisely!

2016 Presidential Election -  "Don't Do Stupid - Be Smart"  

 

Obamacare Google Search - 'How to a'

If you want to get the pulse of the Internet users, go directly to your Internet Provider, IP, and type in key words or phrase into your Google search engine to conduct a query on the web to see what randomly pops up on your computer screen.

Got Google?  Just type in:  'how to a...' (it auto-fills choices for you)

• how to add fractions
• how to apply for food stamps
  
• how to apply for Medicaid
• how to address a letter

<Check out my screenshot from today, November 6, 2013>

And you don't think the IP hubs don't route your keystrokes to data mine personal information into public monitoring NSA mass storage systems? 

I had to chuckle about the 'how to address a letter' because at first it made no sense at all, until I thought about it.  After all, if you can't get food stamps or Medicaid on line, then you can always mail a letter, if you know 'how to address a letter.'  LOL!