Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

The True November 2016 Surprise is Here Now!

Don't believe what the mainstream press is printing and putting out as facts, they hide the unknown knowns!

 

...Say hello to enormous Obamacare premium hikes! To be announced on November 1st,  seven days BEFORE the November 8th Presidential election, Obama is feverishly trying to delay the announcement until after the elections! ...Now, where are all of those "rich" people Hillary says that need to pay their "fair share" for the people?  ..Guess not anymore after the election, but we people all still owe by IRS law to be paying for it anyway, right now! ...Say, huh?

Quote of Whatever

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones."

—Donald Rumsfeld

A Real Spin in an Airplane - A Tall Tale of a Story

THE GULFSTREAM G550

LEGENDARY QUALITY, FLEXIBLE PERFORMANCE

The G550 has the efficiency to fly 6,750 nautical miles/12,501 kilometers nonstop, but also is capable of operating out of short-field, high-altitude airports. Payload is a plus, too. The G550 can transport up to 18 passengers and still has the range to fly nonstop more than 12 hours.

The Whole Story

Famous Quotes:  …You already know the end of the stories!

• ·         Obama said, "You can keep your plan & your Dr." ... 
• ·         Bill said, "I did not have sex with that woman"…
• ·         Hillary said, "It's a video that started the attack that killed the Ambassador" …
• ·         Loretta said, “We talked for half an hour about grandkids and golf”…

A Field-base operator (FBO) is a commercial business granted the right by an airport to operate on the airport and provide aeronautical services such as fueling and parking. Unidentified personnel who worked at the FBO in Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport called a TV anchor at the local ABC Station who verified the meeting. A second independent source at the airport said Loretta and Bill were alone together on board AG Loretta Lynch’s jet for half an hour.

Question: Why would AG Loretta Lynch go to Phoenix first which is 600 miles South of Aspen and then go North to Aspen from Phoenix? Anyone check on the actual flight plans of both planes?

Well, let’s see... AG Loretta Lynch was headed to Aspen, Co from Washington DC for a speaking engagement, a distance of around 1500 miles in almost a direct line from East to West. The Government plane she was flying in was more than likely a G550 with a range of 6750 miles.

She did not need to stop in Phoenix for fuel because if she would have flown direct, fuel would not be necessary. In fact, if you do the math, the G550 has the range to make that direct round trip route without refueling.

Question: Why was Bill Clinton’s plane waiting for AG Loretta Lynch’s plane to land in Phoenix when she was going to Aspen?

Also remember now, AG Loretta Lynch does not have any grandkids and doesn’t play golf. ...Hmmn!

The meeting was either planned to put the Clinton Fix on or to decide on which golf course Bill played on in Phoenix.

 

Get to the Back of the Bus or Be Thrown Under it!

Do you ever get that tired rundown feeling all the time?--You know, it's actually from always being thrown down under the bus and backed over repeatedly.

Aren't you just getting weary of endlessly hearing about why we are accused of being an unjust, dishonest, conniving American people, blamed for every little glitch in our society or in the world? Obama believes the demographics have changed in America to support his narrative saying, "That's not who we are!" But, either we're being too bigoted or too gluttonous, but also condemned for our extreme values of Constitutional laws protecting individual rights  by limiting the balance of power in Washington politics.

Without those pesky individual rights, the totalitarian government's theology takes controls to supersede beyond imagination a voracious appetite to categorize everyone within its profiles according to Federally mandated standards. So no one's above the law, only below the purview of government legislation to be told what to do. That's bureaucratic bigotry targeting individuals. 

I'll let a great American patriot speak and whom I met, shook his hand and spoke to on a few occasions after church services in Bel Air, CA in the mid-1960s before Ronald Reagan ran for Governor of California in 1967. He served two terms from 1967 to 1975 and declined a third term to run for President from 1981 to 1989 instead.

President Ronald Reagan's uplifting, positive views and outlook are different than Barack. Obama's downward stilted, left-wing socialist ideals view our society within communal groups responsible for every individual's travesty in order to create a political divide, guilty as charged. 

The Muslim "N" Word is the new "F" Word

Language is a collective memory or cultural history so the meaning of words are defined by society. Just as words in English have no meaning to people that don't speak English, the words can have certain meanings in certain sub-cultures or circles.

Anti-racial cartoons in publications.Actually in the Muslim world the "N" word in Arabic is "Nikah". In Arabic it is equivalent to the "F" word, it is a word from the Quran when offensively taken basically means pejoratively "to have sex." The typical Islamist counter-argument states, "Even though this is completely false when silly Christians say that, [the term] "Nikah" is a proper and not offensive word to use." and added, "It is true that "Nikah" could sometimes also refer to sexual intercourse so it does not only have to necessarily mean "to have sex", it could also mean marriage." So in another words, this word does not have a double entendre, double meaning, when uttered or written outside the Quaran? ...Ah yeah, gotcha! So that's words like ass or cock and what sinful act they do together that's mentioned in the Bible that can't possibly be used pejoratively? 

In war torn Iraq the conquering Islamic militants have decreed that it is death to the Christians if they don't convert to Islam, pay a dhimmi tax (Sharia dhimmitude to allow infidels to live), or leave homes to flee insurgent-held areas by the end of July 2014. Christians were estimated to be a scant 5%, 1.2 Million, of the 23 million Iraqi population and have emigrated in mass since the insurgencies began late last year.

According to Abu Faris, a local Christian leader from Mosul, the Islamic State Fighters began marking the Iraqi Christians properties with the Arabic letter "N". The protesters in France show the profane symbol against Christians as they march to denounce it. 

It is reminiscent of the Nazis marking businesses and homes with the "J" word for Juden (Jews) during WW2 in Germany. It marked them as undesirables which eventually identified where to find them for transport to concentration camps for extinction. Where are over six million Holocaust Jews today? Dead.

Muslim Brotherhood

What some people call regular mainstream "Moderate Muslims" it's as if that modifier means being anything different than the "Radical Muslims." 

We hear a lot of qualifying statements about “moderate Muslims” when “radical Islam” is mentioned. Now, certainly, one can imagine that the majority of Muslims, are most likely people who just want to get on with their lives and that in western countries in particular, many keep a low profile and just live their lives with a low current of religiosity. Like people everywhere, they are trying to get through the day, and not start a revolution or ignite a war.

Even so, most are sympathetic to radical concerns or issues, even if they are not entirely seized with passion for the cause. It is generally reported that 10-15% of the Muslim world population are true radicals supporting jihad which is calculated from 170 to 225 milllion terrorists. The United States currently has a total population of 330 million citizens. So, these moderate Muslims' passive attitudes really just feed the heated passions of radical Islamists which just encourages them even further. 

Other Muslims are completely against radicalism, but 'stay on the down low' and don’t make waves. Then, there are the Muslims who become leaders and actually attempt to impress some kind of moderate change on the current situation within Islam. Many of these high-profile moderates or liberal Muslims don’t get as much press as the radicals, but they do exist, and often they live their lives under threat of death from their co-religionists.

While the world’s population is projected to grow 35% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 73% – from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion in 2050. In 2010, Muslims made up 23.2% of the global population. Four decades later, they are expected to make up about three-in-ten of the world’s people (29.7%).

By 2050, Muslims will be nearly as numerous as Christians, who are projected to remain the world’s largest religious group at 31.4% of the global population.

So what is the answer? It's obvious, and some will not like it--we either have to co-exist, which is totally unacceptable by the majority of Islamists or we will be reduced to dust in warfare - literally, unless we do it first to the Iranians. So, anyone heard of or have any ideas or solutions? Otherwise, let the ethnic cleansing continue until Islamists have killed every infidel or unbelieving Christian and Jew.

--isn't time to stop kidding ourselves and turn around things?