Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

The True November 2016 Surprise is Here Now!

Don't believe what the mainstream press is printing and putting out as facts, they hide the unknown knowns!

 

...Say hello to enormous Obamacare premium hikes! To be announced on November 1st,  seven days BEFORE the November 8th Presidential election, Obama is feverishly trying to delay the announcement until after the elections! ...Now, where are all of those "rich" people Hillary says that need to pay their "fair share" for the people?  ..Guess not anymore after the election, but we people all still owe by IRS law to be paying for it anyway, right now! ...Say, huh?

Quote of Whatever

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones."

—Donald Rumsfeld

Refugee Refuse - Human Garbage: Who picks it up?

Third World Invasion: An Eyewitness Description

An eye-witness pictorial account from Kamil Bulonis, a Polish travel blog writer, was present on the Italian-Austrian border on September 5, 2015 who wrote, "...swarms of Third World non-whites poured across the border to invade Austria and Germany..." (a literal description translation from the Polish text):  

"For those few thousand people nobody understood neither Italian nor the angielksu, or German, or Russian, or Spanish ... What mattered was right fist ... They fought for permission to move on and this agreement have - but did not realize that they have it! [EU nations all have open borders as EU agreements] The coach [car] of the French group [EU volunteers were bringing them supplies] hatches [doors] were open - everything was in the middle, within a short time has been stolen, some things lying on the ground ... Never in my short life I had occasion watch such scenes and I feel that this is just the beginning. On a final note, it is worth helping, but not at any price." 

These observations are well said truths by Kamil Bulonis about this whole humanitarian mess mainly caused by the weak, feckless U.S. foreign policies from an Obama administration that are a joke to our enemies. They are dangerously foolhardy and naive ideas for any American citizens to follow too.

Beware - These are all potentially undocumented, unknown, unskilled, uneducated, undetermined refugee status visa holders flooding to American shores under orders by Obama!

Please Note: All pictures are from the Hungarian-Austrian border.

Immigration vs. Colonization

This is Colonization Pure & Simple!

Folks, let's get serious: Not all people coming into the United States have any intentions of ever becoming citizens or paying taxes - we must be selective.   

 "Among developed nations, only the US and Canada still offer automatic citizenship to children born on their soil. Not a single European country follows the practice." - Liz Peek in the Fiscal Times.  

They only wish to reap the generous benefits given from tax payers' pockets with no intentions or aspirations to be American citizens. They only want to establish colonies: ethnic living areas, ghettos, communes and separate communities devoid of the American experience with the national spirit or even the laws; i.e, Sharia Laws. No solid border protection erodes national sovereignty and immigration controls that leads to economic disaster - just ask the Europeans! 

"The exorbitant cost of educating the children of illegal immigrants in public schools across the U.S. is sure to skyrocket now that a new study confirms the number of anchor babies has nearly doubled in the last few years and will likely keep growing.

Unauthorized immigrants comprise slightly more than 4% of the adult population of the U.S., but because they are relatively young and have high birthrates, their children make up a much larger share of both the newborn population (8%) and the child population (7% of those younger than age 18) in this country. [These figures are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s March 2009 Current Population Survey.]

"U.S. taxpayers already dish out around $52 billion to educate the children of illegal aliens with local governments taking the biggest hit (nearly $50 billion) and the feds contributing about $2 billion. The biggest chunk goes to elementary and high school education, but a substantial portion ($8.3 billion) also goes to specialized instruction for limited English speakers and several hundred million dollars is spent on subsidized college tuitions.

"Those already astronomical figures will surely increase as the population of illegal immigrant offspring swells. A new study released by a nonprofit dedicated to chronicling “Latino’s diverse experiences in a changing America” reveals a surge in anchor babies that will inevitably take a huge toll on U.S. taxpayers. It also indicates that automatic citizenship granted to all U.S.-born children—as per the Constitution’s 14th Amendment—is a huge lure for illegal immigrants.

"That’s probably why illegal immigrants are having babies in the U.S. at a much higher rate than the general population, according to the Pew Hispanic Center study released this week. The number of children born to illegal immigrants in the U.S. jumped to 4 million from 2.7 million in a six-year period and the children of illegal aliens accounted for 340,000 out of the 4.3 million babies born in 2008, the latest year for which figures were available. [The latest year for report now available 2014.]

"This means that nearly one out of every 13 children born in the U.S. have an illegal immigrant parent. On a broader scale, nearly 79% of the 5.1 million children of illegal aliens were born in this country and are therefore U.S. citizens, the analysis found."

"This means that Americans will pay more to educate anchor babies as well as provide them with other welfare benefits normally denied if they were foreign born." 

Is the U.S. Color-Blind? - See the Whole Spectrum!

Jesse Jackson & Al Sharpton

Many people in the U.S. speak about only the Black and White races as the color issue, but did you know black and white are not colors? 

FYI: The correspondence of a color to a specific wavelength is called spectral color. White and black are excluded from this definition because they do not have specific wavelengths. White is not defined as a color because it is the sum of all possible colors. Black is not defined as a color because it is the absence of light, and therefore color. 

Anthropology founder Johann Friedrich Blumenbach (1752–1840), created the universal categorical reference of the five color typology for humans: white, black, yellow, red, and brown. 

So what's the point here? Maybe it's time to give the full multicultural spectrum of all skin colors recognition for their issues too within all racial discussions instead of focusing just on Blacks.

It is primarily for this reason that the Black complaints start to fall apart. They're still blaming current living conditions due to their past slavery and civil injustices. It has happened to everyone else and they all have moved on to all types of goals and achievements.  Let's take a look at the historical data: 

Most Blacks today were not alive or even personally know anyone over these years as the United States passed laws and society evolved into the most free democracy for all:

• 1865 Declaration Proclamation - U.S. Slavery which ended. 
• 1954 Supreme Court Decision, Brown vs. Board of Education ruling - school segregation laws which ended.
• 1961 Affirmative Action Executive Order - school college admissions and all U.S. business hiring policies discrimination which ended. Race based quotas were established then and since been ruled as proven to be discriminatory to other races too.
• 1964 Civil Rights Act - all segregation which ended.
• 1965 Voting Rights Act - voting laws restricting voters in every state which ended.
• Fair Housing Act of 1968 - racial housing restrictions of the legal sanctions to Jim Crow which ended.

What are the exact racial breakdowns according to the U.S. Census Bureau for Blacks and other races?

Note: The 2013 U.S. Census table actually reports the broad category of "White alone" as 77.7%; but Under closer inspection that table has another "White alone, not Hispanic or Latino" as 62.6%. Why is that bigger White percentage even shown in their published table? We did omit it here in our table above to avoid confusion as it overstates a larger White majority percentage over the Black minority category. The table had double counted the "Hispanic or Latino" in "Whites only" and then again entered as a separate line item on the list too. Are any minority statistics misrepresentations here used to base Federal Government assistance and give-away programs on throughout the country? ...hmmn.

The 2013 Census table shows besides the 62.2% Whites alone, another whopping 26.2% of the population are not Black; but they are a minority group that is twice as big as 13.2% Blacks. Ask yourself--why don't you see that 26.2% on TV demonstrating in streets, burning down communities, destroying local businesses while killing each other, doing ilicit drugs, crimes and filling jails or prisons? ...hmmn.

Don't kid yourself though, there are all groups involved in crimes besides Blacks. However, the liberal biased mainstream media always depicts Blacks in network news shows, but why? The riots and demonstrations are politically selected when only Black people are in police involved shootings, others races are deliberately underreported. So, all the card games are dealt only with Black and White cards in stacked decks with the Race cards wild!