Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

The True November 2016 Surprise is Here Now!

Don't believe what the mainstream press is printing and putting out as facts, they hide the unknown knowns!

 

...Say hello to enormous Obamacare premium hikes! To be announced on November 1st,  seven days BEFORE the November 8th Presidential election, Obama is feverishly trying to delay the announcement until after the elections! ...Now, where are all of those "rich" people Hillary says that need to pay their "fair share" for the people?  ..Guess not anymore after the election, but we people all still owe by IRS law to be paying for it anyway, right now! ...Say, huh?

Quote of Whatever

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones."

—Donald Rumsfeld

A Real Spin in an Airplane - A Tall Tale of a Story

THE GULFSTREAM G550

LEGENDARY QUALITY, FLEXIBLE PERFORMANCE

The G550 has the efficiency to fly 6,750 nautical miles/12,501 kilometers nonstop, but also is capable of operating out of short-field, high-altitude airports. Payload is a plus, too. The G550 can transport up to 18 passengers and still has the range to fly nonstop more than 12 hours.

The Whole Story

Famous Quotes:  …You already know the end of the stories!

• ·         Obama said, "You can keep your plan & your Dr." ... 
• ·         Bill said, "I did not have sex with that woman"…
• ·         Hillary said, "It's a video that started the attack that killed the Ambassador" …
• ·         Loretta said, “We talked for half an hour about grandkids and golf”…

A Field-base operator (FBO) is a commercial business granted the right by an airport to operate on the airport and provide aeronautical services such as fueling and parking. Unidentified personnel who worked at the FBO in Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport called a TV anchor at the local ABC Station who verified the meeting. A second independent source at the airport said Loretta and Bill were alone together on board AG Loretta Lynch’s jet for half an hour.

Question: Why would AG Loretta Lynch go to Phoenix first which is 600 miles South of Aspen and then go North to Aspen from Phoenix? Anyone check on the actual flight plans of both planes?

Well, let’s see... AG Loretta Lynch was headed to Aspen, Co from Washington DC for a speaking engagement, a distance of around 1500 miles in almost a direct line from East to West. The Government plane she was flying in was more than likely a G550 with a range of 6750 miles.

She did not need to stop in Phoenix for fuel because if she would have flown direct, fuel would not be necessary. In fact, if you do the math, the G550 has the range to make that direct round trip route without refueling.

Question: Why was Bill Clinton’s plane waiting for AG Loretta Lynch’s plane to land in Phoenix when she was going to Aspen?

Also remember now, AG Loretta Lynch does not have any grandkids and doesn’t play golf. ...Hmmn!

The meeting was either planned to put the Clinton Fix on or to decide on which golf course Bill played on in Phoenix.

 

Get to the Back of the Bus or Be Thrown Under it!

Do you ever get that tired rundown feeling all the time?--You know, it's actually from always being thrown down under the bus and backed over repeatedly.

Aren't you just getting weary of endlessly hearing about why we are accused of being an unjust, dishonest, conniving American people, blamed for every little glitch in our society or in the world? Obama believes the demographics have changed in America to support his narrative saying, "That's not who we are!" But, either we're being too bigoted or too gluttonous, but also condemned for our extreme values of Constitutional laws protecting individual rights  by limiting the balance of power in Washington politics.

Without those pesky individual rights, the totalitarian government's theology takes controls to supersede beyond imagination a voracious appetite to categorize everyone within its profiles according to Federally mandated standards. So no one's above the law, only below the purview of government legislation to be told what to do. That's bureaucratic bigotry targeting individuals. 

I'll let a great American patriot speak and whom I met, shook his hand and spoke to on a few occasions after church services in Bel Air, CA in the mid-1960s before Ronald Reagan ran for Governor of California in 1967. He served two terms from 1967 to 1975 and declined a third term to run for President from 1981 to 1989 instead.

President Ronald Reagan's uplifting, positive views and outlook are different than Barack. Obama's downward stilted, left-wing socialist ideals view our society within communal groups responsible for every individual's travesty in order to create a political divide, guilty as charged. 

Europe's Hard Questions to Syrian Refugees!

Several observations have raised glaringly obvious facts that no one has even mentioned yet. After all, these people are not duly registered immigrants but are refugees that live in temporary tent shelters in camps while awaiting for their repatriation back to their home countries.

The daily mainstream television newscasts and even the cable broadcasts don't mention or tweet any negatives. All of the financial welfare program are real hardships to those sponsor European nations along with the intrusion of Muslim cultural and Islam religious values upon the indigenous Christian populations of the affected areas.

With all that said, the European Union has finally had it chickens come home to roost. Their had smug attitudes about letting the United States fight terrorism and pay with its own blood and treasure which was just fine, it was no sweat or cost to their countries. Their little or no help for the past decade at all to militarily joining in to take down the Muslim terrorists finally caught up with them; especially after Obama constantly repeated he had his 50 members of "coalition partners" that were shoulder to shoulder with him to fight these Islamic terrorists. These coalition partners could have contained these terrorists to their own lands but instead just sat out the war while the U.S. fought it and are now paying the price today.

So, it was no surprise to most Americans that Obama in keeping his campaign promises just up and left the region and pulled out most all of the U.S. troops. The entire region immediately collapsed and imploded into total chaos, mass executions and murders, religious persecution and total societal destruction. I have to admit that no one hears anything from the White House about Obama's monumental military action's aftermath; it was one of Obama's worst foreign policy mistakes. If the U.S. doesn't lead, it doesn't happen!

Inquiring Minds Want To Know...

Can someone please explain the following regarding the Syrian refugees arriving in European destinations from worn torn regions?

1/ How come they all seem to have endless supplies of money to pay the people traffickers? Some say personal savings, others say I.S.I.S. funds. The refugees had to pay human traffickers $500 to $1,300 for a spot on a boat with some reported paying up to $4,000. 
 
2/ Why do most refugees appear to have working mobile phones? Some use GPS to safely find way out, others say I.S.I.S. personnel coordination.
 
3/ How do most refugees appear well dressed and fed and do not seem to be suffering the effects of malnutrition?  Interesting that no one has addressed this observation yet.
 
4/ Why are most of the fleeing refugees men of military age? They all seem to be able-bodied men who would be fighters taking back their homelands in Syria--some say they're imbedded cells of I.S.I.S. insurgents. 
 
5/ Why are other Muslim nations not helping their fellow Muslims? (Saudi, Kuwait, U.A.E. Indonesia, but to name a few) They're wary of questionable religious, political motives of any Syrian refugees that can possibly destabilize their countries.
 
6/ How come the two boys and their mother drowned off the Turkish coast can be returned for burial to the place they fled so quickly, what is believed to be I.S.I.S. held territory?
 
7/ Could it be some are being paid to come to Europe as a way to increase the Muslim population and get I.S.I.S. fighters embedded in Europe? We all know life is cheap from an I.S.I.S. viewpoint so the loss of a few lives along the way has no meaning for them as long as it benefits their cause. 

Update on Wednesday, September 16, 2015 at 3:59PM by D.K. Dickey

In response to my questions I have received a response from a loyal reader who has certainly been one vocal voice from within my liberal friends. Here are his answers backed by his extensive experience while working in the region for many years--It's well worth reading too!

I thought I would give you my opinion and try to answer your questions. As a note, I have a Syrian friend whose families are caught up in the cross fire.  Newar has taken in his wife's family into their home in Riyadh, his family are still [in] Syria.  Newar and his familiar [family are] living a horror we can never imagine.

Can someone please explain the following regarding the Syrian refugees arriving in European destinations from worn torn origins?

1/ How come they all seem to have endless supplies of money to pay the people traffickers?

A) Many of the people interviewed were professionals and business owners.  This is probably not a random representative sample, but you can assume those who have the money will try to leave.

B) The refugees hoc'ed [hocked] their life's possessions to leave. Gold jewelry and coins are used frequently as a means to save and can be easily converted to euros.  When I was in the Middle East I was surprised to see how many places you could buy gold and number of non-wealthy middle easterners a buying gold.

C)  Family is huge with Muslims.  Relatives are likely helping each other to get out of harms [sic] way.

2/ Why do most refugees appear to have working mobile phones?

Cell phones are as common as sandals In the Middle East.  The lowest paid Indian laborer on my project making less than $500 per month had a cell phone.  

3/ How do most refugees appear well dressed and fed and do not seem to be suffering the effects of malnutrition?

 Food is available; this is not the trail of tears. [Well said]

 4/ Why are most of the fleeing refugees men of military age? They all seem to be able-bodied men who would be fighters taking back their homelands in Syria. (Need to add Iraq and Afghanistan)

 I disagree with your assertion that more than 50% of the refugees are able bodied men, but that's an argument for another time.  Currently the ground situation is a mess and begs the question who would the untrained men fight for or with, the Syrian, Iraqi or Iranian military fighting ISIS and their own people, the Kurds, Shia or Sunni militias or with a local tribal unit?  Alliances within the Middle East are very fluid, the enemy of my enemy is my brother is how alliance are formed and go back hundreds of years. [excellent points] 

The alliances are based upon religion, sect, clan and family and not country. This is not unlike how the U.S. was like in 1861 when Robert E Lee turned down the command of the Union Army and said he could not raise his sword against Virginia.

5/ Why are other Muslim nations not helping their fellow Muslims? (Saudi, Kuwait, U.A.E. Indonesia, but to name a few) 

Agreed, Saudi claims they have taken in 2.5 million Syrians, but most are guest workers and not refugees. The GCC countries have contribute [sic] some money, but could do more.  Jordan has been overrun by refugees. In 2013 I was in Jordan and saw several camps run by the UN and at that time Jordan was hosting over 500,000 people. 

Their is a simple reason the refugees are not going to Saudi Arabia, it's Saudi Arabia. [Great insight point]

6/ How come the two boys and their mother drowned off the Turkish coast can be returned for burial to the place they fled so quickly, what is believed to be I.S.I.S. held territory?

Photos are powerful and can be a change agent.  Khobani was the home of the mother and child and was the center of heavy fighting,  but was liberate [sic] by the PKK earlier this year.  Remember family and home are very important to Muslims.

7/ Could it be they are being paid to come to Europe as a way to increase the Muslim population and get I.S.I.S. fighters embedded in Europe? We all know life is cheap from an I.S.I.S. viewpoint so the loss of a few lives along the way has no meaning for them as long as it benefits their cause. 

Yes this is a distinct possibility, but do you throw the baby out with the bath water.  We also have home grown terrorist inspired by ISIS and others. Not all Muslims are terrorist.    

What you didn't mention was the migration of North Africans crossing the Mediterranean to Italy. Thousands have drown making the crossing.  The desire to make a better life for yourself and family is powerful and you will risk death to achieve this goal.  This refugee crisis should teach us that securing our borders and managing immigration is much more complicated than building a wall and 15 second sound bites. Remember, in the eyes of the Native Americans we are illegal immigrants.

[NOTE: Although European colonists were technically illegal immigrants to the "indigenous Indian" tribes [not Native Americans], they were in fact also immigrants too. Many tribes' accounts also describe coming from elsewhere by boat, far earlier in time than the Bering Strait theory claims. Others migrated long distances, such as Athapascans coming from what is today Alaska to the southwest, where they became Apaches and Navajos. So who was first means it's genealogy is muddled as all those who followed are immigrants to that first tribe's land.]  

My comments: These all are strong reasons for the whys of a Syrian immigration, however unlike in the days of yore no income taxes were levied on sovereign citizens of the host country to support hoards of wandering peoples. Those who came made their own way, under their own resources and without any government largess to support their vagabond dreams for a new life. Furthermore, there were no municipal or public facilities built to house any refugees. These immigrants were expected to embrace their new homeland and government if even allowed to become citizens while many of these peoples over the centuries have been turned out and pushed back into returning to their home countries.

Realistically these Muslim nomads carry within themselves a religious zeal to absolutely refuse other religions from freely practicing theirs according to their Islamic teachings. The only true believer is a Muslim, others are infidels who must convert or submit as a second-class of people under Islamic Dhimmitude by paying a tax to work and live or be stoned to death.

Will this burgeoning swell of Muslim humanity bloat host countries with their religious intolerances to cause religious Sharia Law to topple secular Civic Law? These, after all, are real consequences created as it's happening now throughout Europe. In England these two parallel legal universes coexist as Islamic law has blossomed to take precedence over English jurisprudence.

Take a look at who led aggressions in religious battles: