Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

How to Separate the Beef from the Bun for a Cheaper Burger!

Workers have a beef about their pay at McDonald’s, so McDonald's recently came out with their answer to those that demand  $15 per hr pay.  ...Robots! 

This month in Europe, McDonald’s hired 7,000 touch screen cashiers. Of course when this happens, like it did in Los Angeles, the unskilled workers will lose their jobs.

 

This is exactly what the left pushed for, but Fast food chains were never meant to be a place for someone to raise a family of 6. They were to be part time positions with some full-time advancements.  Most fast food jobs were intended for school aged kids to learn how to be responsible, interact with people, and have a real job that offers a wage. The part time position was not intended as full time employment to support a family.

U.S. Schools are "Rotten to the Common Core"

In this 2014 Midterm elections, it was about education reformers. Republican Governors Rick Snyder, Michigan; Scott Walker, Wisconsin; Nathan Deal, Georgia; and Sam Brownback, Kansas all cut through a flood of negative campaigning with the American Federation of Teachers Union ads to prevail and win.

It really was a 'textbook' victory for all students to win more than just another election year of empty political promises. It was for conservative programs aimed at improving educational standards. The Federal Government "Common Core" program is an abysmal failure in offering basic education subjects, poor execution of teaching methods and dismal high school graduation numbers results. Our textbooks need to once again start teaching more about American exceptionalism in principles, values and pride about why we are the greatest country in world history, second to none.

The very uber-liberal, progressive, left-wing bullying tactics of the American Federation of Teachers Union literally backfired. Their ad campaigns lied with statistics to support politicians promoting more union job growth along with union dues, burgeoning union benefits programs with more taxpayer supported spending--it was all about more union jobs, not better education curriculums.

The "Big Lie" of the American Federation of Teachers Union: "ThesePrivate Sector Workers under Union Workers tax burdens. governors were for 'cutting' education spending. Some of the examples were blatant like: "Sam Brownback signed the largest single cut in Kansas history." or "Rick Scott took a $1.3 billion sledgehammer to schools." or "Rick Snyder slashed $1 billion from education." or that "Scott Walker was slipping tens of $ millions to those bent on privatizing education along with handouts to businesses and very the wealthy." All of this lying campaign ad rhetoric has since been debunked and has ceased as the electorate who were the consumers of the ads did not buy it, voting all those Republican Governors into office.

Even the North Carolina Republican U.S. Senator, Thom Tillis was accused by outgoing Senator Kay Hagen, who Thom unseated, with unfounded 'phantom education cuts'. Hagan was saying during the campaign, "Thom Tillis' cuts to education hurt No. Carolina students." Rick Scott who championed 'school vouchers' in poor Florida districts with positive results was attacked about that education from V.P. Joanne McCall of the Florida Education Association. McCall warned, "Voucher schools are largely unregulated." and "...are a risky experiment that gambles taxpayer's money and children's lives." Those comments beg one to ask some questions to that Union Vice President:

1. Just who for years has been regulating Florida education full-time while daily those Florida public schools and teachers in the federally funded U.S. education system have gone downhill? 
2. Could it be any of those American Federation of Teachers Union members are responsible? 

--[Cricket Chirps] - [Silence] 

In a U.S. educational system rigged to protect the hierarchical bureaucracy, on the chopping block in ongoing nationwide elections will be education reforms, the red meat that feeds everyone's appetites: the electorate, politicians, lobbyists, special interest groups, teachers and students. Like diet plans, different size portions must be served to sustain education while accordingly anticipating growth. It relies on the balance of teacher salaries and tenure reforms, union benefits and pension fund distribution verses pro-school-choice programs and school voucher systems that affects costs which ultimately dictate curriculum with its intended improved results in the students' overall education.

Why should education matter? Why should schools matter? Why should students matter? Why should Americans citizens matter? Why should anyone anywhere matter? Why it should matter is because this political-socio-economic experiment called democracy is considered by many as about the poorest form of government ever conceived, but it sure beat outs whatever is second best! Anyone can rise above and be successful if they get educated in order to get ahead in America--I personally know because I did it too.

Our country is dependent on the future, the dreams and aspirations of a new generation to build on the past while evolving into the next new challenges. It takes education and the freedom to recognize what America has and is doing within the framework of its founders' U.S. Constitutional laws, not what progressive liberals think should be the laws. That is the best answer to all of the "Whys".  

Making Cents of 2016 Campaign Slush Funds

The Federal Elections Commission, FEC, Presidential 2012 Report results: 129,085,403 total votes cast. Obama: 65,915,796 (51.06%) Romney: 60,933,500 (47.20%)  Others: 2,236,107 (1.73%) Voting Age: 226,465,619 (57% Voted) Total U.S. Population: 317,000,000 (100%)

As anyone can see, the ballot numbers cast are small, the vote margins are slim and a candidate's chance to win are none if voters do not get out and vote, much less even take time to request absentee ballots to mail back by election day. Dauntingly, the staggering campaign funding to prod out these U.S. electorate to vote is literally a billionaire's game as both major parties will raise and spend a historical record busting $1 billion each for the 2016 Presidential election. Now divide that measly number of 129,085,403 actual voters into $2 billion! It works out to a whopping cost per capita vote of $15,490. 

Blame it on the Koch brothers! The billionaire Neo-Con archvillians are the Democrat nemesis extraordinares who have been extensively blamed in the mainstream media headlines which continue on with episodic storytelling. So, it offers up to the casual T.V. viewers or Newspaper readers a never-ending continuity to the big, bad 'bogeyman' syndrome about ultra-rich 'tea party conservatives' controlling the agenda narratives in all of the elections. It all sounds very plausible, but is that scenario really possible? Or, maybe not?

Another billionaire 'bogeyman' is Democrat Tom Steyer, a former Wall Street hedge fund manager and avid environmentalist. The environmentalists envisioned Steyer as their 'knight in shining armour' to realign their party platform planks to champion their issues. Then, Democrats have hailed him as their new power broker with a $500 million war chest to rival the Koch brothers as Steyer arrived on the scene vowing $100 million for the 2014 fall elections. He would match $50 million of his own money to $50 million from donors to run 'hard-edge' campaign of attack ads and make Climate a 'wedge issue' to divide voters. As of last month, according to Politico, his NextGen Climate action committee had raised all of $1.2 million.

To the DNC, Democrat National Committee, and Tom Steyer's great surprise was that his bold campaign strategy of attacking anti-environmental candidates was deeply, politically flawed. At first look, it appeared extremely ambitious, the idea to get those anti-climate change rascals voted out of office and establish strong 'climate change' planks in the Democrat platform. On second look, it became horribly obvious that by eliminating those rascals Steyer would throw some key Democrat senators out of office that had purposely distanced themselves away from Obama green fuel iniatives in order to win independent leaning voters in their coal, oil and gas producing states.

This 'climate caped-crusader' very well could single-handedly cost the Democrats their Senate seats to shift the majority over to Republicans; so the DNC strategists preemptively wiped out the NextGen operations right off their electoral map plans. So it goes to prove that money isn't everything in political influence pedalling; it helps to implement a well thought out campaign that weighs out all the consequences to its actions. Tom Steyer and the Democrat party in their zeal and exuberance to perjoratively attack the Republican values proved out an important lesson: "Stupid is as Stupid does." And what's its message to voters?  

Don't believe all of those campaign attack ads and nasty rhetoric to get your votes; instead vote on what really matters to you, not what is sold in 10 second sound bites to you by special interest Activists, well-financed Washington K Street Lobbyists and monied Billionaires. ...Try Thinking for Yourself for a Change! ...and that is a Change that you can really believe in!

Vote in the 2014 Mid-Term Elections! 

"Obama, We Deserve a Break Today!" - McDonald's

Obama with AFL-CIO Union Pres. Dick TrumpkaJust when you think Obama is done tearing down all of the
  basic structures within this country, now you can also count on your Big Mac cheeseburgers, crispy Chicken McNuggetts, French fries and sodas costing more money to buy--just "Look for the Union label" on your check!

The National  Labor Relations Board, NLRB, begins an attack on the franchising business model. The franchiser/franchisee relationship is built upon a division of roles and responsibilities. Due to this unique system in which the franchiser licenses its exclusive brand, the franchisee operates as an independent business at one or more locations.

Generally, after an initial licensing fee, a royalty off the top-line or gross sales is levied to compensate the franchiser, not a share of the franchisee profits. It is up to the franchisee who generates the bottom line, the net profits, to determine how efficiently he manages his direct and indirect costs. These can either make or break a business start-up and possibly discourage a business investment before it is even started. So what would cause those actions?

Since a tremendously large group of franchisees are in the 'fast food' industry, the obvious overhead costs are the building lease and improvements, equipment, furniture, packaging supplies, uniforms and of course, the food and beverage provisioner. All of these items affect the bottom line, but they remain fairly consistent predictable percentages at fluctuating sales volumes. The truly onerous outlier cost is labor. The ability to balance the personnel levels with the proper service levels for consistent customer satisfaction is paramount to maximizing profits while assuring return patronage. 

Currently franchisees choose who they hire, how many are hired, their wages and benefits, their training, the labor practices as union or non-union employees, how to conduct employee evaluations for decisions on promotion, discipline or separation. Franchisers are not directly involved in any personnel decisions in practice nor do they have the contractual authority. The franchisees act in daily operations, under legal terms, as solely independent small businesses.

McDonalds received a devastating decision this week which may affect all franchiser/franchisee relations.

The National Labor Relations Board, NLRB, ruled that McDonald's could be treated in labor complaints as a joint employer of its franchisee workers which affects every small business owner. Now, the franchiser would have to monitor and review all franchisee labor decisions which would add cost to the franchisee.

NOTE: Up to now, this labor mechanism is what makes or breaks the franchisee since the franchiser takes his cut from the top gross sales figures; so then after labor costs are deducted, the franchisee takes his cut or income from the bottom line net profit.

By U.S. government agency fiat the franchisers find themselves unable to now control their increased overhead costs of their added labor management oversight unless by lowering employee wages to create any net profits for the franchisee. The lower wages invites in union organizers to strike for higher worker wages as unions have always dreamed of unionizing restaurant workers nationwide.

The current AFL-CIO union membership is 12 Million and shrinking while desperate for any new blood. All federal, state and local fair labor practices and laws are in effect now, not like in the old days that the unions once battled--those fights are over. The old unionization days are in the past for many experienced workers today that see no future in paying dues as free market pricing and labor wages have reached parity with competitive employment to bid up income with benefits to acceptable levels. 

The big downside is many franchisee businesses with entry low-level jobs will become unprofitable due to union wage hikes and Obamacare as jobs are cut back or lost as they shut down as unskilled workers will be hurt by NRLB regulations.

The AFL-CIO and Obama have the most to gain with added union membership dues and contributions. Historically union members overwhelmingly vote a democrat ticket, so dues are disproportionately directed into the democrat party political fundraising coffers. 

The Dues Scam: The dues monies are profits unjustly fleeced from the pockets of the small business owners, paid to the union members as higher taxable wages, paid to the union as membership dues and paid to the Democrat National Committee, DNC party machine as political contributions. Note: Employee wages are subject to any local, state and federal taxes and the Democrat political contributions are non-taxable donations to DNC. They pay NO taxes for the dues money.