Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

Get to the Back of the Bus or Be Thrown Under it!

Do you ever get that tired rundown feeling all the time?--You know, it's actually from always being thrown down under the bus and backed over repeatedly.

Aren't you just getting weary of endlessly hearing about why we are accused of being an unjust, dishonest, conniving American people, blamed for every little glitch in our society or in the world? Obama believes the demographics have changed in America to support his narrative saying, "That's not who we are!" But, either we're being too bigoted or too gluttonous, but also condemned for our extreme values of Constitutional laws protecting individual rights  by limiting the balance of power in Washington politics.

Without those pesky individual rights, the totalitarian government's theology takes controls to supersede beyond imagination a voracious appetite to categorize everyone within its profiles according to Federally mandated standards. So no one's above the law, only below the purview of government legislation to be told what to do. That's bureaucratic bigotry targeting individuals. 

I'll let a great American patriot speak and whom I met, shook his hand and spoke to on a few occasions after church services in Bel Air, CA in the mid-1960s before Ronald Reagan ran for Governor of California in 1967. He served two terms from 1967 to 1975 and declined a third term to run for President from 1981 to 1989 instead.

President Ronald Reagan's uplifting, positive views and outlook are different than Barack. Obama's downward stilted, left-wing socialist ideals view our society within communal groups responsible for every individual's travesty in order to create a political divide, guilty as charged. 

Obama: Caught Up In His Own Tangled Web

1941 'The Maltese Falcon' - Humphrey Bogart & Sidney Greenstreet CLICK ON PHOTO TO VIEW VIDEO FILM CLIP - Time: 04:13"What is at issue here is not some sacred moral value, such as "In God We Trust." Domestic politics or the affairs of nations are not an avocation for angels. But the coin of this imperfect realm is credibility."

"Sydney Greenstreet's Kasper Gutman explained the terms of trade in the 1941 film, 'The Maltese Falcon': "I must tell you what I know, but you won't tell me what you know. That is hardly equitable, sir. I don't think we can do business along those lines." Bogie was rebuked and so he angrily stormed out of the room. So then how do two sides conduct a one-sided negotiation amicably? They don't, just like in the movie. But in Obama's case, he is the world leader on the world stage acting like a two-bit actor that's all show, no go and no real act.

"Bluntly, Mr. Obama's partners are concluding that they cannot do business with him. They don't trust him. Whether it's the Saudis, the Syrian rebels, the French, the Iraqis, the unpivoted Asians or the congressional Republicans, they've all had their fill of coming up on the short end with so mercurial a U.S. president. And when that happens, the world's important business doesn't get done. It sits in a dangerous and volatile vacuum."

The Maltese FalconObama has foolishly squandered his own moral capital. Despite appearances, politicians and governments care deeply about people's moral judgments, for these provide the moral capital they depend on for survival and effective functioning. Obama stupidly burned all of his bridges as he never learned an important axiom: “An honest man's word is as good as his bond.” - from 'Don Quixote de la Mancha' by Miguel de Cervantes. Obama has deservedly earned the distinction that he cannot be trusted to give or keep his word, period - how many times is too many to finally cross the 'red line'?

"The next major political event in Washington is the negotiation over spending, entitlements and taxes between House budget chairman Paul Ryan and his Senate partner, Patty Murray. The bad air over this effort is the same as that Marco Rubio says is choking immigration reform: the fear that Mr. Obama will urge the process forward in public and then blow up any Ryan-Murray agreement at the 11th hour with deal-killing demands for greater tax revenue." 

"Then there is Mr. Obama's bond with the American people, which is diminishing with the failed rollout of the Affordable Care Act. ObamaCare is the central processing unit of the Obama presidency's belief system. Now the believers are wondering why the administration suppressed knowledge of the huge program's problems when hundreds of tech workers for the project had to know this mess would happen Oct. 1."

It is apropos to say, "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive." - by Sir Walter Scott, 1808.  It certainly describes not only Obama but his untrustworthy partners' motives both inside and outside government circles.  He has consistently demonstrated his contempt for our Constitutional governance, our capitalist country and our people--witness Obama's burdensome socialist programs and prolific Federal government spending projected to shoot over $20 Trillion at the end of his term. And, our government has still not cut spending or set up any budget--isn't it about time now?

Bush-Clinton 2016 Presidential Campaign On

Behind the scenes - Loud whispers for Bush vs. Clinton Race!

RINO Jeb & DEMO Hillary - Both "Big Government" advocates & "Big Spenders & Big Taxers" Liberals.It looks like the "King Makers" of the political parties have already chosen their 2016 Presidential candidates. It's time to dole out the Testosterone, Viagra and Estrogen to stimulate the masses into an excitement reaching up to a frenzied orgasmic vote over the most expensive Presidential erection election in U.S. history-- $1 Billion dollars for each candidate.

What's really different in this next big election cycle? No new ideas...not much, except a lot of political Washington B.S. promises and more corruption. Sound cynical? It is, because this side-show is an insulting mockery of the democratic process for choosing leaders. So, it will be quite a dog and pony show as the electorate again takes its part on stage as the receiving end of the act - if you aren't the lead dog, then the view never changes!

RINO - DEMO Obamacon Party Logo

*The Obamacon Party* - A choice between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton is interchangeable, both liberals will spit out warmed-over pap what voters want to hear in their Presidential 2016 campaign races.

The choice is obnoxious, the fix is already in and everyone has to look surprised when this duo match-up is announced. These announcements must be early on in this 2016 Presidential election cycle because of the historic campaign run-up costs so that donors can be assured of which candidates run and PACs funded along with campaign organizations.  

Both "Progressives" aka "Marxists"Is there any "Change" we can believe in here? - Read On...

On June 29, 2004 Hillary said, "Many of you are well enough off that the tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." During a fundraiser for Senator Barbara Boxer in San Francisco. Standing before an audience of wealthy Democrats, Clinton criticized the Bush administration's tax cuts for upper-income Americans not mentioning who the "upper-income" Americans were as many small business owners who qualify making over $200 Thousand dollars, an arbitrary income ceiling for upper-income earners.  This is more demagoguery of 'the haves'' verses 'the have-nots' and the unfairness of income inequality - marxist tenets.

On September 2, 2005 Hillary said, "I think it's time to send a clear message to what has become the most profitable sector in (the) entire economy that they are being watched." In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Hillary Clinton accused the big oil companies of profiteering — and used demagoguery like "trying to make money off the backs of this tragedy", however, with the off-shore rigs and refineries shut down along with the delivery delays due to Katrina, the available supplies were stressed by market demand pricing on available supplies. 

On May 29, 2007 Hillary said, "It's time for a new beginning, for an end to government of the few, by the few, and for the few..... And to replace it with shared responsibility for shared prosperity." It was at the Granite State Independent Living Forum in Manchester, New Hampshire outlining what Clinton called her "progressive vision to aid the middle class [and] address rising income inequality" to disabled seniors. (Code name for 'middle class' is "bourgeoisie" and 'progressive' is "left-wing socialist")

On June 4, 2007 Hillary said, "(We) ....can't just let business as usual go on, and that means something has to be taken away from some people." at a political Forum broadcast on CNN's "The Situation Room". She was addressing the difficulty of reaching a political consensus on issues such as health insurance reform and climate change concluding the government knows better about how to allocate private individuals' properties for the good of the people.

On June 4, 2007 Hillary said, "I certainly think the free-market has failed." Clinton was being asked what could be done to reduce the frequency of abortion in the United States. She began by speaking of the necessity of assisting young people in making the right choices and concluded that we have failed them in our churches, our schools, our government. Hillary deliberately overlooks parental responsibility due to couples not married with 77% of black babies born out of wedlock. This follows closely to Hillary's "It takes a village" thinking about the government engineered child raising as the answer to the lack of family units. Is personal responsibility too much to ask and promote to individuals instead?

The Obama 1964 LBJ War on Poverty Program

“Everyone is entitled to their own opinion,. but not their own facts.” ~ Senator (D-NY) Daniel Patrick Moynihan. The recent Trayvon Martin incident begged the question about where does racial profiling come from? The "facts" below answer that question. 

After fifty years, the 1964 "War on Poverty" is a $15 trillion national disgrace.   

It was to restore equality in education, jobs, housing and fiscal opportunities to the poor, especially to blacks. The new numbers from the 2012 Census Bureau report still shows no change since 1964 of the 15% of Americans living in poverty – and a clear sign that we are still doing something wrong.

Obama with tear stained cheek.Why is Obama still crying about income redistribution and whining that "poor blacks" are still left behind? He is complaining like nothing has been done on the Federal level to "right the wrongs" to those former slaves (Freed by the 13th Constitutional Amendment in 1865) as if in 2013, 150 years later, all the whites were still slave owners standing on their shoulders to keep them down. People should look at this phony "race hustle" to call out this "race card" charlatan - it's been getting really tiresome hearing this "black president" squawk about no chances to get ahead while elected by the voters into in the highest office in the United States and the world in 2013.

Heard any of Obama's 2013 strategies about: How to be dealing with the 73% out-of-wedlock black children birth rates leading to fatherless families like Treyvon Martin? Or what was Treyvon's mother thinking of to have more children with still another man out-of-wedlock too? Or why had Trayvon been suspended multiple times out of school, taken drugs, ran with gangs, sold dope and had gold teeth and tattoos? Or why Trayvon's mother gave up on Trayvon's drugs, friends and lifestyle to push him out the door for his father to then handle? Or how come Treyvon's own father shacked up with his girlfriend and why he had no job either?  

Source: US Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Commerce, CATO Institute.

Welfare is the organized public or private social services for the assistance of disadvantaged groups. Aid could include general Welfare payments, health care through Medicaid, food stamps, special payments for pregnant women and young mothers, and federal and state housing benefits. The Welfare system in the United States began in the 1930s, during the Great Depression. Opponents of Welfare argue that it affects work incentives.

Date Verified: 10.15.2012

Welfare Statistics
Total number of Americans on welfare	4,300,000
Total number of Americans on food stamps	46,700,000
Total number of Americans on unemployment insurance	5,600,000
Percent of the US population on welfare	4.1 %
Total government spending on welfare annually (not including food stamps or unemployment)	$131.9 billion
Welfare Demographics
Percent of recipients who are white	38.8 %
Percent of recipients who are black	39.8 %
Percent of recipients who are Hispanic	15.7 %
Percent of recipients who are Asian	2.4 %
Percent of recipients who are Other	3.3 %

Factoid:  The federal government currently operates 122 different anti-poverty programs, ranging from Medicaid to the tiny Even Start Program for Indian Tribes and Tribal Organizations. All together, the federal government spent more than $591 billion in 2009 on means-tested or anti-poverty programs, and will undoubtedly spend even more this year. That amounts to $14,849 for every poor man, woman and child in America. Given that the poverty line is just $10,830, we could have mailed every poor person in America a check big enough to lift them out of poverty – and still saved money. 

In 2012 the total U.S. population was 313,314,000. Per capita, the largest percent in a group of welfare recipients is black, over 51%, compared to fewer than 8% of whites. There are 50 million people on welfare and food stamps. Approximately 40% black, 40% white and the 20% remainder "others". This translates to 20 million blacks and 20 million whites on welfare. Those who identified as African American made up 12.8% of the U.S., 39 million people. Twenty million are on welfare and one million are in prison. There are 245 million whites who made up 77.9% of the US, 20 million are on welfare and one million in prison. Conversely then, there are 2.5% of all "blacks" verses .004% of all "whites" in prison with all "others" for a total of 2.3 million incarcerated prisoners population.

In 2013 the NAACP states that prison has not been proven as a rehabilitation for behavior, as two-thirds of prisoners will reoffend. That in itself offers more support for seeking significantly longer sentencing guidelines for incarceration on second and third offenses. It further rejects any remote suggestions that prison is rehabilitation, not to be confused with judicial punishment that removes from society individuals who will repeatedly commit crimes. 

From 1980 to 2008, the number of people incarcerated in America quadrupled-from roughly 500,000 to 2.3 million people. As of 2008,  prisons and jails consume a growing portion of the nearly $200 billion we spend annually on public safety with $70 billion dollars spent on corrections yearly. The 2013 Gross Domestic Product is $16 trillion, so $200 billion is only 1.25% of GDP. This amount, compared to our national debt is insignificant compared to the overall societal confidence in public safety over releasing these recalcitrants back into the general populations.

Doing crime just leads to more shit!American society today does not support children's religious beliefs, morals, displays or practices in any public schools. Relying on social media, cable and internet interactions many children development is distorted wanting for parental relationships.  The family and home life teach children these set of values, but many do not have that anchor and with no moral standards will break laws. Out of 314 million people, 2.3 million convicts is only .0073% of the total population. 2/3 are repeat-offenders, so 1.5 million convicts are reimprisoned "throw-aways" which leaves 800 thousand prisoners freed. 

"Perhaps its time to focus less on making poverty comfortable, and more on creating the prosperity that will get people out of poverty. That means that if we wish to fight poverty, we must end those government policies — high taxes and regulatory excess — that inhibit growth and job creation." The spotlight can then turn inward to the individuals' own resources, not to the politically corrupt politicians doling out government largess to pander for voters. We need to start another "War on Poverty" by starting a war on self-entitlement programs and school illiteracy; otherwise, we surrender now to racial profiling and save those trillions of dollars to build more prisons.