Trump Economy Naysayers Lesson

Reading Instructions: 

• Put Down the iPhones
• Know a 10 Sec. News Sound Byte is not all the Facts
• Read actual Historical Facts on Record
• Learn how to discover the Real Facts for yourself 

Fully understand what President Trump is accomplishing by comparing today's real facts to historial facts from 1843 to 2018 - You be the Judge... Enjoy this article, a real US History lesson!

To Every Thing There Is a Season,                                               But Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Turn                                                   

By: Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

Sept. 21, 2018

Every year, as the end of summer approaches, monarch butterflies head for Mexico, birds migrate south for the winter, and financial pundits predict that the stock market is about to crash.

Is the longstanding popular belief that September and October are the worst months for stocks valid?     Yes and no—mostly no.

Yes, some of the worst days in Wall Street’s history have hit during September and October - But that’s no reason to panic.

• On Sept. 24, 1869, the original Black Friday, the price of gold collapsed roughly 20% and took the stock market down with it.

• On Sept. 18, 1873, the investment bank Jay Cooke & Co. suspended payments, setting off a series of bank failures that triggered one of the worst depressions in U.S. history.

•  On Oct. 16, 1907, a busted speculation in copper led to a run on some of New York’s biggest banks, sparking a panic that ended only when J.P. Morgan personally intervened—ultimately leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

• On Oct. 28, 1929, “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.8% in the crash that set the stage for the Great Depression.

•  On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6%, the worst daily loss in its history.

• On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed, ushering in the darkest days of the global financial crisis.

Is this destiny, or just random variation?

According to William Schwert, a finance professor at the University of Rochester who studies the history of asset prices, September does have the lowest average return of any month. From 1834 (the earliest date for broad market data) through 2018, September is the only month whose average return is negative -- at minus 0.4%.

Why Do You Think They Call It 'Fall'? The U.S. stock market has, on average, earned its lowest monthly returns in September. That might be a predictable result of less sunlight and colder weather–or it might just be a random fluctuation. Average returns on U.S. stocks between 1946–2018 by month. Source: G. William Schwert, University of Rochester

But the differences across months have been small, so you shouldn’t read much into September’s relatively poor historical average return, cautions Prof. Schwert.

Over the long run, December has the best average monthly return, at nearly 1.4%, with January close behind at 1.2%. The variations “don’t have much economic significance,” says Prof. Schwert.

As for October, its returns are positive on average, at 0.4% since 1834. Since 2002, October is the third-best month, with an average 1.6% return -- even though the S&P 500 lost nearly a fifth of its value in October 2008.

So investors’ fear of September and October is based less on evidence and more on what psychologists call “availability”—the human tendency to judge how likely an event is by how easily we can recall vivid examples of it. The horrific losses of October 2008 are hard to forget. The milder gains of 7% in October 2015 and 11% in October 2011 are hard to remember.

Investors might be more prone to worry this time of year, though. Researchers have found in numerous independent studies that as summer fades into fall, people’s behavior does turn with the leaves. As the hours of daylight dwindle, brain chemistry can change, reshaping how much risk some people are willing to take.

In his 1903 book, “The ABC of Stock Speculation,” the financial chronicler Samuel Armstrong Nelson wrote: “Speculators are not disposed to trade as freely and confidently in wet and stormy weather as they are during the dry days when the sun is shining, and mankind cheerful and optimistic.” 

Investors trading options are more likely to expect losses in fall than in spring or winter. In the U.S., Canada and Australia, mutual-fund shareholders are all net sellers in their respective fall months, even though Australia’s autumn runs from March through May and it has a different tax year. 

Average returns on U.S. Treasuries appear to be higher in fall than in spring, suggesting that investors seek safety in the darker months. Stock analysts’ earnings forecasts are less optimistic in fall and winter than in spring and summer. 

Across more than 150 years of data, bidders at fine-art auctions paid more, on average, for paintings sold on longer, sunnier days than they did on shorter, darker days. Even players in the National Football League tend to be more aggressive in games played on hot days than on cool days. 

Of course, not all investing decisions are driven by psychology. Nowadays, people might tend to sell stocks in the fall in order to fund tuition payments coming due in September or to pay off credit-card debt they racked up on summer vacations. They might invest more in the first quarter of the year after pocketing year-end bonuses and tax refunds.

Still, “if bad news comes out in the fall, many investors may react more extremely than they might a few months later or earlier, when daylight is more plentiful,” says Lisa Kramer, a finance professor at the University of Toronto who has run several studies on how seasonal mood changes may affect financial behavior.

Although the stock market doesn’t always crash in the fall, you might well be more likely this time of year to treat smaller declines as harbingers of doom. Try, instead, to remember that the darkest months of the year often have the brightest returns.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com 

Rushing to Judgement on the Napolitano Charges

This is the perfect storm of the uber-left to feed the American electorate a poison pill to kill one future conservative Supreme Court candidate from being nominated. In a chess game where the current move now on the board has been to capture the Judge Gorsuch nomination, the next one is for the seat of Judge Ginsberg. Liberals are in a real panic, and for good reason - Napolitano is Conservative!

Fox News has fired Judge Andrew Napolitano (pictured) for exposing UK spy agencies working with Obama, according to his report.

News Credit: Judge Napolitano

One of the most popular faces on news-based TV, Judge Andrew Napolitano, is being let go by Fox News. This is happening “after disavowing his on-air claim that British intelligence officials had helped former President Barack Obama spy on Donald Trump,” according to Yahoo News. A person with knowledge of the situation who chose not to be named has said that the Judge will not be with the network any longer nor will he be in any Fox segments.

It all started last week on “Fox and Friends.” He said he had three different sources showing that Obama traveled “outside the chain of command” to spy and watch President Donald Trump. The United Kingdom called the accusation “nonsense” following White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer making a reference to the report during a briefing. This all goes back to Trump uncovering that he was spied on by Barack Obama before (and perhaps after) he was elected to office.

Judge Napolitano was at the White House advising about Judge Gorsuch and was rumored to be on a short list for the Supreme Court.

In what seems to be a rather common theme in James Comey’s left leaning F.B.I, it was declared by the agency that there is no proof that Trump was spied upon or wiretapped by Obama. This is the same director that when Wikileaks exposed all of the proof about Clinton, and didn’t need much research to move ahead with her prosecution, claimed that more time was needed. Now for something that DOES need to be researched in depth, it seems that Comey can reach a conclusion in no time at all.

The President has flirted with the wise idea of appointing Napolitano to the Supreme Court before. However, he has said regarding the matter, “all we did was quote a certain very talented legal mind who was the one responsible for saying that on television. I didn’t make an opinion on it. You shouldn’t be talking to me. You should be talking to Fox.” This does not mean that “America’s Judge” is forbidden from being appointed to the highest court in the land. Clearly, he is free from other contractual obligations now. The problem is that he may be seen as tarnished, and might face huge opposition to his nomination if it were to happen. Now that he has been fired from Fox, those that oppose him on the left will call this matter in to question as a way to say that he is not honest.

“America’s Judge” has been on the side of the true meaning of the Constitution for a very long time.

Shepard Smith at Fox News all but fell over himself trying to run from the comments. He said, “Fox News knows of no evidence of any kind that the now-president of the United States was surveilled at any time, in any way.” This is the kind of statement by both Fox and Smith that could really come back to haunt them should the Judge’s words prove true. Napolitano is not a man who has a reputation for being wrong nor dishonest in any way. For this reason, if he was right, many viewers will see Fox just as they do CNN, which is fake news. They also will not easily forgive the besmirching of Napolitano or Trump, if vindicated.

This is more than likely to happen too, considering that he had served on the New Jersey Superior Court from 1987 to 1995, and has more than a bit of experience gathered from the post to know facts when he hears them. It is not very probable that Napolitano made up the three sources, either. One source could be any crackpot, two sources would be common, but three? For him to pick three as his number, he must have really had the sources. Unfortunately for “America’s Judge,” unless the three prove brave enough to stand up for him, he could be in real trouble trying to prove this. It can not be imagined that he would ask them to out themselves.

While Judge Gorsuch will likely fill the Scalia vacancy, Napolitano was on a short list to replace Ginsburg or any of the elder Supreme Court members in the future.

He has been with Fox as a senior judicial analyst since 1998, so it is odd that the network would not have a bit more faith and trust placed in him by now. There is simply no feasible way that he would openly sacrifice his career and quite possibly his future on the American Supreme Court just to flirt with a lie. His motive could be to secure a place of security in Trump’s future plans for the Supreme Court, but he has already been consulted for Judge Gorsuch. His name is ALREADY on the short list for any openings. As such, he has no motive whatsoever to have stretched the truth in this report.

It is far more likely that the Judge has stood by his morals and his ethics. He was most likely fired for refusing to expose who told him. He could do that, but then he would have to look into the mirror when done. Considering that so many people are murdered for bravely telling the truth, Napolitano could, in theory, be signing someone’s death sentence with such a disclosure. Beyond that, if they worked for a UK spying agency as said, these three heroes could lose their jobs, pensions and perhaps even be sent to prison for treason. If England uses the firing squad, that too could be an option since we are talking about spying agencies at the very top.

President Trump is irate over hacking and wiretapping that he says is coming from the left.

Rather than send these sources to a life of exile as Snowden’s Russian neighbor, Napolitano can be expected to simply take the blow no matter how damaging. If he never gets to wear the black robe as he sits on the Supreme Court because of his report, he will accept it. If his future shot at that is lost then it was lost for the truth (at least the truth as he believed it to be when he said it). That is something a just judge can live with.

Such a man is not driven by power or greed, so he would be (and still is) a remarkable choice for such a post. That will depend on two things, however. First, it depends on how much time passes before his name comes up when a justice retires or dies, and secondly, if Trump would still appoint him. If so, the president will see many political arrows from the Obama left flying for his head if, or when, he does.

We do know that in all of these years of loyal judicial and analytical service, Judge Andrew Napolitano has been nothing but consistently correct. That means that either he suddenly decided to soil his reputation by lying about three sources in a spy story that otherwise would have passed the news cycle, or he was telling the truth. Where there is smoke, one often finds a fire. Hopefully, that burning smell is the aroma of the Judge happily torching his contract and looking onward.

News source: https://conservativedailypost.com/breaking-fox-news-fires-judge-napolitano-after-he-proved-obama-treason-live-on-the-air/ 

Obama Vampire Diaries

Forrest Gump famously remarked, "Mama always said, "Stupid is as stupid does." You are what you do. Unfortunately, many do without even thinking--read on... George Carlin, Comedian & Social Critic

During the course of any day many different people normally offer the conciliatory "Hello, how are you?" greeting and then turn away without waiting for any reply, no intended insults taken either--everyone is polite, but busy. Occasionally conversations take up after the perfunctory salutations, then it can be an opportunity to share ideas about the weather or more substantive topics. 

Lately, however, I have realized that I have been in amongst an ever-growing population of the living dead; Vampires, a pejorative description for liberals who may appear to be regular people. Contrary to many popular misconceptions about the mythical Vampires, they can stand the light of day but not direct sunlight because they will sparkle showing what they really are--it sounds just like Vampire Liberals who cannot withstand any media spotlight highlighting their true colors, otherwise people should fear them as well.

The unfortunate tragedy here is that many of these Vampire Liberals are unaware they are transformed into the walking dead. They have been unknowingly programmed due to repeated exposure from a barrage of left-wing mainstream media assaults at home while inundated with propaganda under the auspices of the federally funded liberal school curriculums. The left-wing agenda has literally permeated the whole societal fiber of the citizenry today in order to control the politics. 

So how does this trend reverse itself? Sadly the quick answer is a very slow one as it has taken from 1960 to 2014 for fifty-four years plus to indoctrinate two generations into joining federal entitlement programs. A generation is defined as thirty years it takes for a person to be born and to have children of his own. Lyndon Johnson started "The Great Society" program to mimic the FDR "New Deal" program which then encompassed "The Civil Rights Act" and "The Medicare Act". Lyndon Johnson, who was ambivalent to the Civil Rights Bill for the blacks and changed his tune when he realized he could put a lock on a whole voting block real cheap, for the next fifty years, it was then a political deal that he really relished. 

Factoid: The 1964 election brought in many new liberals to Congress, making the House of Representatives in 1965 the most liberal House since 1938 due to public sympathy after the JFK assassination and completing JFK's program to lower the upper tax bracket by 20% and middle income ones too which increased the GDP 10%. Even though the House and Senate both had 2/3 Democrat members, during the heated debates on the Civil Rights Act, the Southern Dixiecrat Democrat segregationists voted against it to block it. The party of Abraham Lincoln, the Republican Party, voted in the legislation to enable it to pass. The Social Security Act of 1965 authorized Medicare. The Elementary and Secondary Education Act ended a long-standing political taboo by providing significant federal aid to public education, but it opened up ever since a pandora's box of intrusive Washington political agendas in all school levels through college.

The Johnson Administration submitted eighty-seven bills to Congress, and Johnson signed eighty-four, or 96%, arguably the most successful legislative agenda in U.S. Congressional history. 

Economist Thomas Sowell argues that President Lyndon Johnson's "The Great Society" programs only contributed to the destruction of African American families, saying "the black family, which had survived centuries of slavery and discrimination, then began rapidly disintegrating in the liberal welfare state that subsidized unwed pregnancy and changed welfare from an emergency rescue to a way of life."

An Important Election is coming up for a vote in 2014 to elect U.S. Congressmen who will listen to the people, not Washington -- Vote Wisely!

2016 Presidential Election -  "Don't Do Stupid - Be Smart"  

 

A Fort Hood "Workplace Violence Shooting' Again?

The first shooting in November 2009 on the Texas military base of the murder of thirteen people was attributed to 'workplace violence' as the Obama administration did not want to use the words 'Islamic extremist' about Major Nidal Hasan to avoid ethnic Muslim backlash. That poorly misplaced concern actually masks the real underlying problem that the United States faces going into the future, 'Islamic Muslim extremists.'

The Obama administration in their zeal to cover up this truth actually has forever buried their own argument for attacking our second amendment by naming it 'workplace violence' too. Therefore, since Nidal Hasan was not motivated by his Islamic zealotry but instead by some kind of an obtuse anger management issues, his actions were literally insane. It follows that being insane, Hasan falls into the pejorative category with others as 'certifiable nut-jobs' that have massacres around our country during the Obama administration. One cannot argue that any gun laws or confiscation of firearms will administrate or prevent any insane persons incapable of knowing from right or wrong to access weapons.

All of these massacres were atrocities carried out in sanitized environments, almost in a laboratory settings, because these were 'gun-free zones' where no weapons were allowed. All Weapons were 'clinically removed' by prevailing guns laws in movie theatres, school campuses and military bases and signage at points of entries of all facilities disclose gun laws which ban them in these areas too. These facilities with restrictive laws and no guns are the ideal 'perfect environment' that the anti-NRA advocates seek for the entire world. What element are they missing to guarantee complete compliance? These places are all 'soft targets', with the people inside vunerable to attack because they have no weapons to fight back. How about 'conceal and carry' licenses for citizens' self-protection? That would ensure immediate personal safety and defensive action to quickly counter any eminent assault. How about Obama signing an executive order to recind the Department of Defense Directive 5210.56 gun ban to carry sidearms on military bases? It dates back to 1992 under H.W. Bush, subsequently signed by Bill Clinton too.  

Fast forward to April 2014, another Ft, Hood shooting occurs. Spc. Ivan Lopez murders three people and wounded sixteen more. Now what is this murderer's sorry excuse?  He was troubled because he didn't get more time off to mourn after his mother's death; had complained of PTSD, post traumatic syndrome disorder, even though he had no active combat experience but an overpowering fear after an insurgent attack in Iraq; and had hatred that consumed him after getting robbed. Before the afternoon shooting, Lopez stopped at the post's personnel office to pick up a leave form and was told to come back and apparently he didn't want to hear that, so he came back and just opened fire. And so, Ivan lost his crazy mind as he just went off and took out all his frustrations on innocent military personnel.

The real issue here is for an immediate medical diagnosis and timely treatment for the mentally ill. They have to be identified and treated either as an out patient or institutionalized for closely monitored ongoing treatment. Ivan Lopez's treatment was undoubtedly a complex issue when blended with privacy laws, gun laws, base procedures, DOD policies coupled with an overburdened military healthcare bureaucracy. The bottom line is it's still no reason to blame violence on guns since they do not have brains, crazy people have lost their brains which leaves thinking people to act, not to politicize to further castrate our current gun ownership under the second amendment ~ If public code laws do not compel obedience, then personal gun laws effectuate compliance and protection.

The All Powerful Wizard Ozbama Resets Putin Button

"Gatekeeping" is the act of preventing others from recognizing an important, often vital, truth. In the Wizard of Oz. all the smoke and mirrors worked for a while until the All-Powerful and Mighty Oz's cover was blown as Toto, the dog, pulled the curtain open to reveal an ordinary man as he commanded, "Don't pay any attention to that man behind the curtain!" Unlike Dorothy who pursued the Mighty Oz, many people seem satisfied to take that advice and not pay further attention to who or what's behind the curtain. The political and media elite expose what they want the public to see. The global elites, powerful individual and companies, control the whole show behind the world stage. So, the Ukraine plot has players fighting on stage while behind Putin's backdrop curtain are the elites, Russian oligarchs. Who really runs the show--let's take a peak! 

"Why does Russia care about Ukraine, a country that's said to be "as poor as Paraguay and as corrupt as Iran"?

Crimea in yellow circle."Vladimir Putin would like you to believe it's because he's ensuring the safety and well-being of the millions of Russians living there. And, to a certain extent, he has a case.

Of course, the Ukraine's major pipeline routes from the West Siberian gas fields to all of the Western European markets pass through their borders to Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Moldova, Russia, and Belarus--all strategicaly geographic.

"But is it possible that the true explanation is even simpler? Could it be, in fact, that Russia's decision to invade Ukraine had merely to do with a handful of natural gas discoveries off the coasts of Romania and Ukraine?

"I ask this question somewhat rhetorically, because I think the answer may be "yes." As Bloomberg reported in the middle of last year, the Black Sea remains "almost untouched by the oil industry, with fewer than 100 wells drilled, compared with more than 7,000 in the North Sea. The countries surrounding the Black Sea are throwing their doors open to Exxon and competitors to search beneath the brackish waters that run as deep as 1.4 miles (2.2 kilometers)."

"To add fuel to the fire, moreover, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) recently discovered a massive natural gas field off neighboring Romania's shores. The find, according to that country's prime minister, may end up being so substantial that Romania could become a natural gas exporter by as early as 2018.

"It's in this context, in turn, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine can arguably be best explained -- and particularly when you consider that ExxonMobil was on the verge of signing an exploration agreement with a $335 million signing bonus for Ukraine’s government and a promise to spend a further $400 million on seismic surveys and drilling two wells, according to an Energy Ministry official; until the now former fuel and energy minister, Eduard Stavytsky, put the deal on hold in late January.

"We will sign it in February," Stavytsky told the media on Jan. 27. At the time, no reason was given for the delay. Perhaps now we know."

As they say, "The fix is in." Here is the real deal: Do you think that President Obama and President Putin discussed this current 'crisis' about the Ukraine in earlier conversations?  Or maybe, all of this is much Putin & Assad laugh at Obama.ado about nothing in diplomatic circles because it's between two feckless leaders who are merely marionettes in a side show controlled by the strings pulled above by the global elites. And so, the current actions by Russia and the United States are merely a contrived publically aired show staged with loud saber rattling, bellicose hostility to present a hollow straw-man argument to bring back a 'reset button' agreement with Obama; of course, that is after Russia secures the Ukraine and Crimea territories.

Let's face realities here, ExxonMobil is the big gorilla in the room that's huge with lots of money, political connections and power. From the wells to the pump, ExxonMobil is all about oil. The company explores, produces, transports, and sells crude oil and natural gas. Logically thinking, why would ExxonMobil want to do business in an unstable area if they didn't already have the drilling rights and licenses secure, both politically and militarily? After all, their investment in time and money will yield billions of dollars as well as offering power to Russian oligarchs for a tighter Russian stranglehold around the European nations demanding more clean burning natural gas. Hmn... your thoughts?